Blackjack bust probability chart
Compare your chance of busting on one hit with the dealer’s chance of busting by upcard. See the assumptions behind each blackjack probability chart.
Player bust probability on the next hit
This chart uses an infinite-deck model: each ace through 9 has probability 1/13 and ten-value cards together have probability 4/13. It ignores exposed-card removal. For a hard total, count the card values that take it above 21. For example, hard 16 busts on 6, 7, 8, 9 or a ten-value card: 8/13, or 61.54%.
| Current hard total | Busting next cards | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 11 or less | None | 0.00% |
| 12 | 10, J, Q, K | 30.77% |
| 13 | 9, 10, J, Q, K | 38.46% |
| 14 | 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K | 46.15% |
| 15 | 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K | 53.85% |
| 16 | 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K | 61.54% |
| 17 | 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K | 69.23% |
| 18 | 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K | 76.92% |
| 19 | 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K | 84.62% |
| 20 | 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K | 92.31% |
| Soft hand | None on the next hit | 0.00% |
Soft hands cannot bust on a single hit
A soft hand has an ace counted as 11. If the next card takes the total above 21, that ace can count as 1 instead, so one hit cannot bust a currently soft hand. The new hand may become hard, and another hit can then bust. See the soft-hand strategy chart for decisions.
Dealer bust probability by upcard
This table uses an infinite deck and shows eventual bust probability as the dealer draws under S17 or H17. With a ten or ace showing, probabilities are conditional on a US peek having ruled out dealer blackjack. With 2 through 9 showing, no blackjack exclusion is needed. It does not condition on the player’s exposed cards.
| Dealer upcard | S17 | H17 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.36% | 35.67% |
| 3 | 37.39% | 37.67% |
| 4 | 39.45% | 39.71% |
| 5 | 41.64% | 41.77% |
| 6 | 42.32% | 43.95% |
| 7 | 26.23% | 26.23% |
| 8 | 24.47% | 24.47% |
| 9 | 22.84% | 22.84% |
| 10 | 22.98% | 22.98% |
| A | 16.65% | 20.07% |
How the dealer probabilities are calculated
For each possible hole card, add its probability and continue drawing until the dealer busts or must stand. Under S17 the dealer stands on soft 17; under H17 the dealer draws. For a ten upcard after a negative peek, exclude an ace hole card and renormalize the other possibilities. For an ace upcard, exclude ten-value hole cards.
The values are rounded to two decimal places. Actual finite-shoe probabilities vary with removed cards. The blackjack dealer rules guide explains the drawing sequence; the probability model here applies those same stop rules.
Bust odds are only part of a strategy decision
Hard 16 has a high chance of busting on a hit, but standing can lose even more often against a strong dealer card. You must compare the complete outcomes, including double, split or surrender when permitted. Use the blackjack basic strategy chart to choose an action.
The player table measures one extra card; the dealer table measures an entire completed dealer hand. Neither is the chance of winning your next hand or the house edge. Read blackjack odds and expected returns to keep those quantities separate.